Putin Doubles Down: What Russia’s Uncompromising Donbas Push Means for Ukraine, the West, and Trump’s Team

Vladimir Putin has again made it clear that Russia intends to take full control of Ukraine’s Donbas region—using negotiation or force if needed. The West’s disbelief at Russia’s intentions, some argue, is only prolonging Ukrainian losses. As talks drag, battlefield realities shift, and diplomatic games get more complicated, the prospects for peace seem increasingly tied up in political mistrust and old rivalries.

Key Takeaways

• Putin insists Russia will secure Donbas, with or without a deal
• US negotiators seem to finally acknowledge Ukrainian reality, though their approach is up for debate
• Russia views maintaining control over the Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as non-negotiable
• Europe is being sidelined in US-Russia moves, adding to regional tension and mistrust
• Ukraine’s own leadership is in crisis, widening uncertainty about the war’s next chapter

Putin’s Position: No Surprises, No Concessions

Putin has rarely been more blunt. In recent weeks, while prepping for a visit to India, he reiterated that Russia will take the Donbas, by diplomacy or by force, and that Europe and the US shouldn’t be surprised. The tone is calm but unforgiving. There’s no room for middle-ground—suggesting any negotiated arrangement that leaves Russia without total control of the area (or key assets like the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant) is off the table.

This stance isn’t new, but the persistence is striking. Russian officials are emphasizing their military confidence and flatly refusing to give up any gains, especially regarding the nuclear plant. They view Western proposals—like placing the plant under international supervision—as unacceptable risks.

US Negotiators: Trust vs. Skill

Meetings between Putin and Trump-aligned negotiators (like Ric Grenell, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff) suggest some progress: both parties seem to now accept that Ukraine won’t join NATO. That’s a meaningful shift. However, there’s skepticism about the US team’s ability to hammer out a complicated deal. Trump clearly prizes loyalty over diplomatic chops, and that might work for building trust, but it makes closing a deal tough—especially when getting buy-in from NATO, Europe, and the broader US establishment matters.

Here’s a comparison:

Europe mostly watches from the sidelines, occasionally throwing wrenches into the works—sometimes for their own protection, sometimes just to undermine US efforts.

Europe: More Division, Less Influence

Europe’s role is becoming more muddled. Tensions between the US and Europe are more visible, especially as Europe escalates militarization and talks up preparations for potential conflict by 2027. Even as the US and Russia inch toward some mutual understanding, Europeans feel left out—and sometimes actively obstruct the process by proposing changes Moscow will never accept.

Putin has called them out for this, accusing European leaders of trying to sabotage peace, just so they can ultimately blame Russia for the war’s continuation. This only feeds into Russia’s wariness and their strategy to play Europe and the US off each other.

Despite grandstanding from Brussels, the truth is money is running out to fund Ukraine. The European Central Bank recently vetoed using frozen Russian assets for the cause, leaving nothing but the old fallback: printing more money—a route that spells austerity or inflation long-term.

Ukraine: Leadership in Crisis

Things are no less chaotic in Kyiv. President Zelensky’s top advisers have either resigned or fled, and the country’s front lines are starting to buckle. There’s a sense that Zelensky himself may be losing his grip, with more time spent on fundraising tours than running the country. Rumors swirl about British efforts to possibly install a new leader, but it all feels precarious at best.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s voice in big negotiations has faded. Zelensky was recently snubbed at a meeting in Dublin, signaling how much Kyiv depends on the goodwill of outside powers—and how expendable it may have become for both Washington and Brussels.

The War on Narratives—and Energy

The conflict has shifted from just a battlefield to a battleground of narratives and resources. The West talks tough, insisting only strength works with Moscow, while proposing negotiations from a “position of power” that seems more imaginary than real. Russia, meanwhile, is recalibrating relationships—especially with energy supplies—after sanctions and pipeline sabotage have left Europe more dependent on American LNG than ever.

Europe likes to brag about reducing Russian energy imports, but rarely mentions that their new supply is pricier and less reliable. The side effect? Increased strain on European economies and growing public weariness.

What’s Next?

While US and Russian teams continue to circle each other, making little headway, Russia’s leadership appears content to slog on militarily, assuming the West will keep playing political games and delaying the end. Talks may drag on, but on the ground, Russia keeps moving the lines—literally—and is betting that time is on its side.

Putin’s message is clear: Russia isn’t backing down, no matter what diplomatic noise comes from Washington or Brussels. The only real unknown is how long the West will resist accepting the facts on the ground, and how many more Ukrainians will pay the price in the meantime.