Ukraine’s Looming Collapse: Failed Diplomacy and Western Delusions

Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst and State Department counterterrorism expert, sat down to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, offering a stark assessment of the diplomatic landscape and the potential consequences for the region. He painted a picture of two vastly different realities: one held by Russia, and another by the West, which he described as "delusional."

• Russia’s Clear Stance: Russia has been consistent and clear about its terms for ending the war in Ukraine, a position reiterated by Vladimir Putin.
• Western Delusion: The West, including the US and Europe, operates under the false belief that they can defeat Russia or compel Putin to accept their terms.
• Russia’s Stronger Position: Russia is currently in a stronger military and strategic position than at any point since the conflict began, with declining Western aid to Ukraine.
• Inevitable Surrender: Johnson predicts Ukraine will be forced to surrender, with Russia likely isolating and taking Odessa.
• Propaganda War: Western media is engaging in what Johnson calls "sad" and fanciful propaganda, like claims of Russian soldiers resorting to cannibalism.
• EU’s Miscalculation: The EU’s hope to weaken Russia and then dictate terms has backfired, leaving them in a losing position.
• European Weakness: Despite tough talk, Europe lacks the military industrial capacity to confront Russia directly.
• US Policy Division: Internal divisions within the US government create uncertainty about its foreign policy direction.
• No Real Peace Deal: Unless a treaty is ratified by the US Senate, any agreement with Russia is unlikely to be lasting.
• Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis: Ukraine faces a severe shortage of trained manpower, with casualty rates far exceeding recruitment and training capabilities.
• Russian Military Advantage: Russia possesses a superior military position, with more troops, better equipment production, and fewer casualties.
• European Self-Destruction: European leaders are pursuing self-destructive policies, increasing energy costs and alienating allies, leading to irrelevance.

Johnson began by likening the situation to the book "Men Are from Mars, Women Are from Venus," suggesting Russia and the West are living on different planets. Russia, he explained, has been unequivocal about its position for ending the war. Vladimir Putin recently re-emphasized these points, which haven’t changed since June 2024. It’s straightforward, not complicated.

On the other hand, the West – the US, Europe, and the Zelenskyy regime – are operating on a "delusional basis." They believe they have leverage over Russia and can force Putin to accept their terms. Johnson dismissed this idea, stating it’s as likely to happen as "creating a herd of unicorns and selling them to farmers on Venus."

According to Johnson, Russia is in a stronger position now than at any time since the "special military operation" began. This is due to several factors:

• Troop Strength: Russia has a significantly larger troop presence.
• Weapon Systems: Dominance in various weapon systems.
• Ukrainian Military Decline: A dramatic decrease in Ukrainian military forces.
• Western Aid Drop-off: A significant decline in aid flowing from the West to Ukraine.

He pointed to the historical example of General Zhukov’s forces surrounding the German Sixth Army at Stalingrad, compelling them to negotiate surrender. Johnson believes Ukraine will be forced into a similar situation, with Russia taking steps to isolate and capture Odessa.

When discussing the European Union’s complaints about a "not fair" deal, Johnson highlighted the problem of prolonging the war. He suggested the Europeans wanted to keep the war going to weaken Russia, only to find that by the time they were ready to stop it, Russia was in a position to dictate terms. "Every day we wait, it’s going to get closer and closer to defeat," he stated.

He also addressed the escalating propaganda, citing British newspapers claiming Russian soldiers were resorting to cannibalism. Johnson found this sad, noting that Russia is in a much stronger military position than at any point in the war. He contrasted the initial Russian force of 125,000-160,000 soldiers in February 2022 with the current estimate of at least 700,000, possibly up to 1.3-1.5 million ground forces. This is still considered a "special military operation" and has not required full societal mobilization, unlike the US effort in World War II, which consumed 40% of its GDP.

Johnson drew an analogy to a boxing match, comparing Europe to Jake Paul, who can talk tough but lacks the power to truly compete. He argued that Europe does not have the "offensive muscle" to challenge Russia. He dismissed the idea that Russia wants to conquer Europe, stating Russia has vast territory and resources and only wants to be left alone.

He believes Europe is "stumbling into war," using an external threat to justify policies that its own people would reject. Recent incidents, like attacks on Russian tankers and statements from British and French generals about preparing for war, point to this dangerous path. Johnson sees the British as trying to provoke a war, hoping the US will intervene.

Johnson noted that the US is divided internally on foreign policy, with different factions pursuing different paths. He suggested that any deal made by Donald Trump would likely be dismissed by the establishment unless ratified as a treaty by the US Senate, which is unlikely. This means any agreement would be temporary, a "rest stop" for Ukraine to rearm.

He also touched on the narrative control by the West, comparing it to desperate Soviet tactics during the Cold War. He argued that Russia, surprisingly, has become a safer haven for freedom of expression, citing an example of a deputy chief of staff who disagreed with Putin and was not punished but allowed to retire. This, he said, undermines the narrative of Putin as a bloodthirsty tyrant.

Johnson expressed a strong belief that Ukraine is heading for a collapse. He highlighted the critical shortage of trained manpower, with Western sources estimating Ukraine is losing at least 60,000 troops per month through casualties and desertion. Recruitment numbers are far below what’s needed, and the training provided is insufficient for a modern army.

In contrast, Russia has a well-established system for recruitment and training, suffering fewer casualties and maintaining intact supply lines. Russia can afford to launch attacks in undefended regions, forcing Ukraine to react, which then allows Russia to attack the vacated areas. Johnson predicts that by the end of February, Russia could be at the Dnieper River, with Odessa, Mykolaiv, and potentially Kyiv falling under Russian control.

He concluded that there is no military path forward for Ukraine and that the West’s strategy is a "foolish fantasy." The first rule of crisis management, he stated, is to stop digging, but Europe is instead destroying itself and Ukraine by continuing its current course.