Trump vs. The Deep State: What’s Really Happening in Ukraine?

There’s a lot of talk about what Donald Trump wants for the future of the Ukraine conflict, and how that might clash with what some call the "deep state." Trump seems to be aiming for a "peace president" image, possibly to help his business dealings. But is he looking at the big picture strategically? Meanwhile, a new national security strategy document suggests a shift, almost like a "trial separation" from Europe, which is a pretty big deal.

• Divergent Goals: Trump’s focus might be on peace and business, while the "deep state" appears committed to weakening or breaking up Russia, with China as a long-term target.
• Shifting US Strategy: Recent documents and actions indicate a potential distancing from Europe, a departure from previous stances.
• Deep State Influence: The "deep state" seems to be continuing covert actions and pushing for a weakened Russia, regardless of presidential intentions.
• Financial Motivations: Concerns are raised about financial incentives influencing decisions, particularly regarding former officials joining companies involved in Ukraine.
• Russia’s Stance: Putin’s recent speeches suggest a focus on maintaining Russia’s territorial integrity and a belief that the war’s terms will be decided on the battlefield.
• Russia-China Alliance: The growing partnership between Russia and China is presented as a significant development that the US may not be able to counter.

The national security strategy document has certainly stirred things up. It seems to signal a move away from Europe, something echoed by statements made earlier this year. The banning of Europeans from entering the US is a pretty unusual step, not something seen in a long time. This is happening while the "deep state" seems to still be set on weakening Russia, with the idea of eventually going after China. The new strategy, though, has toned down the rhetoric about Russia and China being enemies we have to fight militarily.

It’s unclear how much Trump himself was involved in this document, or if he even read it. But there does seem to be a split within the administration. Some, like Elbridge Colby, might have authored parts of this document, while others are still pushing for actions to destabilize Russia.

What worries some is that if Trump wants peace, but the "deep state" has other plans, what message is being sent? When Ukrainian President Zelenskyy talks about weakening Russia and putting pressure on them, not seeking a negotiated settlement, it makes you wonder who he’s talking to. It doesn’t quite line up with what Trump seems to want.

The CIA, for example, is seen as still operating under an older program. The objective appears to be using Ukraine as a proxy to weaken and break up Russia, and then gain control over its resources. This animosity towards Putin might stem from him stopping US oligarchs from taking over Russian resources in the 1990s.

We’re seeing former officials, like Mike Pompeo, move into roles with companies manufacturing drones in Ukraine, receiving significant pay and stock options. This raises questions about corruption and how these programs continue to be funded. It’s suggested that case officers working on the Ukraine program might see potential future jobs with these companies, especially if the money keeps flowing.

Pompeo himself has made statements about Putin’s intentions going beyond Ukraine, suggesting that any settlement without firm security guarantees for Ukraine or real costs for Putin will only embolden him. This statement, some argue, aligns with financial incentives to keep the war going, rather than a genuine push for peace.

There are claims that the Biden administration told Ukraine not to work out a deal with Russia early on, suggesting they would "negotiate on the battlefield." This approach, where the US isn’t putting its own people or resources at risk, is seen by some as using Ukrainians as pawns in a geopolitical game.

Putin’s recent speeches also indicate a belief that there’s no diplomatic solution right now. He seems to think the terms will be set on the battlefield, leading to a military defeat for Ukraine and NATO, forcing the West to negotiate on Russia’s terms. He’s also emphasized keeping Russia’s 89 regions united, specifically mentioning Crimea and Donbas as permanently part of Russia.

Another significant development is the strengthening relationship between Russia and China. Some in the US believe this partnership is temporary, but others argue that the West’s reaction to the Ukraine conflict and attempts to punish Russia economically have actually exposed the flaws in the international financial system. This has led to a deeper bond between Russia and China, with increased cooperation in various sectors, including military exercises.

This growing alliance is seen as creating a new power center that the US cannot counter. The idea is that the US might have to accept this new reality and find a way to work within this new system being built by Russia and China, or risk being left out.