Emmanuel Todd: The West’s Decline and the Shifting Global Power

Emmanuel Todd, a renowned French historian and demographer, has a history of making accurate predictions, including the collapse of the Soviet Union and the decline of the US Empire. His latest work, "The Defeat of the West," argues that the Western world is facing an irreversible decline.

Key Takeaways

• The West’s perceived victory after the Soviet Union’s collapse led to hubris and a failure to address internal weaknesses.
• A decline in Western industrial and educational standards began in the mid-1960s.
• Russia’s stability and assertion of sovereignty mark a turning point.
• The "zero religion" stage, characterized by nihilism and a loss of values, is a significant factor in the West’s decline.
• Demographic trends, particularly low birth rates, are weakening both Western and Eastern powers.

Understanding Power Shifts: Todd’s Approach

Todd doesn’t focus on traditional geopolitics. Instead, he draws from his background in the Annales School of history, emphasizing long-term societal trends. His method involves looking at deep, basic structures of societies, using variables like mortality and birth rates. He famously predicted the Soviet Union’s collapse by noticing a rise in infant mortality rates, a sign of systemic decay that official data tried to hide.

He explains that his approach isn’t about rebellion but about being a serious student of history, meticulously examining data. He enjoys poring over statistical handbooks and "fishing for data," which allows him to identify long-term trends in areas like education and religion, rather than just focusing on day-to-day politics.

The Meaning of "Defeat"

Todd clarifies that "The Defeat of the West" doesn’t imply a victory for Russia. The book’s core subject is the disintegration of the Anglo-American world. He argues that the fall of the Soviet Union was misinterpreted as a triumph of the Western model (capitalism, liberal democracy). However, he points out that American society had already begun a long-term decline by the mid-1960s, evident in falling educational standards and industrial output.

The expansion of this already weakening system after the Soviet collapse, with NATO moving eastward, eventually met a stable and sovereign Russia. The conflict in Ukraine, in Todd’s view, served as a reality test, revealing the West’s significant weaknesses. He notes that while the war is tragic, his focus remains on these deeper, long-term trends. He wrote his book in the summer of 2023, calmly concluding the West’s defeat was certain, based on his analysis of the US industrial economy’s collapse, declining education, and a shortage of engineers.

He highlights a stark contrast: Russia, with a smaller population, was producing more engineers and qualified technical workers than the US. This lack of skilled labor, he argues, means the US lacks the capacity for a prolonged global conflict. This observation is even acknowledged by the Pentagon and defense corporations.

The Role of Religion and Values

Todd introduces a new emphasis in his book: the decline of religion. He sees family systems as the foundation of social structures. The Western world, particularly the Anglo-American sphere and France, is built on the nuclear family model, which historically allowed for flexibility. In contrast, other regions had different family structures, like the stem family in Germany or the communitarian family in Russia, which influenced their societal values.

He describes secularization in three stages:

1. Active Religion: People believe in God and adhere to associated behaviors and morals.
2. Zombie Religion: Belief in God fades, but the values, habits, and morals derived from religion persist. This stage can be dynamic, as seen with the French Revolution, where religious fervor was replaced by nationalism.
3. Zero Religion: Nothing remains. Belief in God is gone, along with morals, social habits, and the capacity for collective action. This leads to a sense of meaninglessness, emptiness, and nihilism – a desire to destroy.

Todd believes the West is now in this "zero religion" stage. This, combined with a loss of any vision for the future, contributes to a dangerous irrationality. He notes the European Union, once a "zombie stage" entity fueled by Christian democracy, has become a "zero stage" war-mongering organization, lacking a clear future vision. This emptiness, he suggests, makes war seem like a solution.

Misreading Power and Demographic Shifts

Todd argues that the West misreads not only its own declining power but also the strength of rising powers. This is partly due to a narcissistic element in the "zero religion" stage and a lingering nostalgia for past dominance. He suggests that elites and populations are finding it difficult to accept that the era of Western dominance is over, especially with China’s growing influence.

He points to demographic trends as a critical factor. Low birth rates are a common issue across the advanced world, including the West, Russia, and China. While China is experiencing rapid technological and economic growth, its population is declining sharply. This demographic shift, he believes, will lead to weak states everywhere once the current conflicts subside. He speculates that the collapse of the US system might, paradoxically, open a period of peace, allowing time for new systems of thought to emerge, unlike the power-driven conflicts of the past.

Todd admits he is better at describing what happens than proposing solutions. He has lost hope for reversing these trends through reforms. He anticipates a significant shift when the reality of Ukraine’s collapse fully hits, forcing a redefinition of mentalities. While acknowledging the current challenges, he suggests that if the US and Germany avoid extreme actions, there might be a chance for a more peaceful future, albeit one shaped by declining populations and a loss of old certainties.